First-ever Grinnell College National Poll Yields Wide Volume of Data

The Grinnell College National Poll, produced in partnership with nationally-renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer and released last month, has produced a wealth of information for both the national discourse on current events and the students and faculty of Grinnell College.

Topline information, methodology, crosstabs, and interviews conducted with Grinnell College faculty are available on the website. In summary, a snapshot of the findings are as follows.

The inaugural poll’s results show that only 36 percent of likely voters would definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump as president. Additionally, a majority of the electorate report their views on President Trump have become more unfavorable as time has passed.

“A majority of only three demographic groups say they would definitely vote to re-elect the president today, and those were groups he carried by wide margins in 2016: white males with less than a college education (55 percent), rural voters (52 percent), and evangelicals (51 percent). So, this looks like eroding support for the president,” said poll director J. Ann Selzer.

At a time when there is robust debate over issues of immigration, the Grinnell College National Poll showed that 76 percent of likely voters do not believe there are too many legal immigrants in the country. This sentiment was shared across the political landscape, with very little partisan divide.

The poll showed that Democrats are more politically activated than their Republican counterparts at this time, and young people are leading the way:

• 50 percent of likely Democratic voters say they intend to help others cast ballots in elections in the near future. That compares to 34 percent of their Republican counterparts.
• 36 percent of Democrats who are likely voters say they expect to attend meetings, rallies, and marches in the near future, compared to just 20 percent of their Republican counterparts.
• 43 percent of Democrats expect to contact a public official by letter, email, or phone, compared to just 27 percent of Republicans.
• More than one in three voters under the age of 35 (37 percent) expect to participate in public events such as rallies, marches and other events associated with candidates and causes, well above the overall average of 28 percent.

Peter Hanson, Grinnell College political science professor, believes these high levels of political activation may make an impact in the coming weeks.

“This poll shows that Democratic voters are more energized heading into the 2018 midterms,” Hanson said. “These findings suggest that the Republican Party is facing strong headwinds two years into Donald Trump’s first term in office.”

Members of Congress received high levels of unfavorable ratings (53 percent for House members, 55 percent for Senators) in this poll. But overall the respondents saw a better tomorrow ahead with 60 percent of likely voters who expressed a hopeful rather than fearful feeling about the future of the nation following November’s midterm elections.

The Grinnell College National Poll also measured responses to some of the flashpoint issues in our current news cycle. Among the answers:

• The issue of NFL players kneeling in protest during the national anthem draws an equally passionate reaction from both sides
• Eighty-four (84) percent of likely midterm voters describe themselves as “patriotic”
• Seventy-three (7)3 percent of the general population believe receiving “a college education is an important way to get a better job”

Students from Grinnell College were among the first to begin breaking down the poll’s raw data, which has already paid academic dividends.

“As soon as the data was released to the Data Analysis and Social Inquiry Lab (DASIL), two student mentors started processing the necessary codebooks, and SPSS and stata code to visualize the data,” said Xavier Escandell, Grinnell College associate professor.

“This challenging experience has resulted in a code and template that will allow future Grinnell College National Poll data visualizations to be processed more efficiently. As new data is available, the potential for ongoing experiences with data management and visualizations will be available to our students.”

The inaugural poll by the elite liberal arts college in Grinnell, Iowa, interviewed 1,002 individuals (including 779 likely voters) and was completed during the Labor Day weekend by Des Moines-based Selzer & Co. A second edition of this poll is planned to follow the 2018 midterm elections.